Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #8
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 8th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 6.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 63.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 256 216 286 250 250 224 294 298 281 263 264 253
Team Adjusted Rating 214 259 238 250 224 265 298 261 263 264 253
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
10  Karsten Schlegel 11 15:49 15:54 15:56 15:54 15:56 16:01 15:36 16:27 16:05 15:55 15:42 15:42
77  Gabriel Connelly 11 16:30 16:07 16:22 16:56 16:36 16:12 16:33 16:28 16:37 16:37 16:35 16:24
85  Daniel Adair 11 16:33 16:47 16:41 16:05 16:34 16:25 16:29 16:39 16:20 16:42 16:42 16:39
142  Tyler Strothman 12 16:48 17:02 16:50 17:02 16:39 16:44 16:41
209  Luke Bentz 12 16:59 16:24 16:42 16:40 16:42 17:22 16:48 17:05 17:14 17:04 17:29
215  Nathan Pennekamp 12 17:00 17:02 17:03 17:00 16:49 17:03 17:10 17:09 16:58 16:53 16:59 17:03
316  Zac Shaw 11 17:15 16:50 17:06 17:54 16:55 17:12 17:12 17:23 17:08 17:20 17:42 17:12
320  Charlie Fikes 11 17:15 17:20 17:22 17:06
460  Peter Allison 11 17:35 17:19 17:41 17:27 17:32 17:33 17:40 17:39 17:41
524  Ben Bentz 9 17:42 17:15 17:19 17:10 17:52 17:56 18:09
585  Kevin Zehr 10 17:48 17:53 18:06 17:45 17:41 17:45
1,067  Vaughn Hendrickson 9 18:30 19:11 18:25 18:31 18:22 18:26
1,446  Nick Spielman 9 18:58 19:11 18:41 18:56 19:04 19:00
Max Adair 9 19:00 19:42 18:52 18:51 19:04 18:57




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 9.9 294 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.9 6.1 10.3 14.2 13.4 12.7 9.5 7.0 6.7 4.4 3.2 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.2 134 3.6 13.7 58.0 15.2 5.4 2.8 0.9 0.5 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.1 54 90.7 7.7 1.3 0.4
Sectionals 100% 1.1 43 91.3 7.1 1.3 0.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 13.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 2.9 4.0 6.1 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 2.2 99.9%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 76.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 43.2%
Daniel Adair 100% 85.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 31.2%
Tyler Strothman 100% 118.7 5.7%
Luke Bentz 100% 140.5 0.7%
Nathan Pennekamp 100% 142.8 0.3%
Zac Shaw 100% 164.5 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 3.5 1.2 19.8 22.2 14.9 12.0 8.2 5.9 4.2 3.1 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 24.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.9 4.4 4.7 3.8 5.4 3.7 4.8 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 28.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.8 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.0 99.9%
Tyler Strothman 100% 43.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 98.1%
Luke Bentz 100% 56.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 88.4%
Nathan Pennekamp 100% 57.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 85.4%
Zac Shaw 100% 77.8 46.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 1.9 1.5 54.0 24.3 11.2 5.4 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 9.3 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.0 7.5 12.0 19.2 17.3 15.4 9.5 5.8 3.6 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 10.3 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.4 6.8 12.8 17.7 16.7 12.7 10.8 5.7 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Tyler Strothman 100% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.1 9.8 11.5 12.7 10.6 9.2 7.8 6.5 4.2 4.1 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 100.0%
Luke Bentz 100% 19.4 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.3 4.9 5.7 8.1 9.3 8.2 7.4 6.0 6.8 5.7 5.6 5.2 3.7 100.0%
Nathan Pennekamp 100% 20.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.7 5.9 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.1 100.0%
Zac Shaw 100% 29.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.4 4.1 3.7 4.1 99.7%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 1.0 71.0 19.5 6.2 2.4 0.9 0.2
Gabriel Connelly 6.3 0.8 3.8 6.0 10.3 23.3 21.3 16.2 9.3 5.0 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Daniel Adair 7.1 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.3 16.3 22.4 20.1 14.2 8.3 3.0 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Tyler Strothman 10.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 8.4 14.0 16.0 13.6 11.4 8.3 5.6 5.7 3.3 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2
Luke Bentz 15.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.5 8.4 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.4 8.1 6.8 5.6 5.1 6.1 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.2 1.8
Nathan Pennekamp 15.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.9 4.4 8.4 8.3 9.8 7.9 7.6 7.1 7.6 7.1 5.6 4.0 3.3 4.0 2.4 2.3
Zac Shaw 23.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 6.1 6.0 6.7 6.6 6.2